097号 page 97/212

このページは 097号 の電子ブックに掲載されている97ページの概要です。
秒後に電子ブックの対象ページへ移動します。
「電子ブックを開く」をクリックすると今すぐ対象ページへ移動します。

概要：
87　ARTICLESHistorical Occurrence of El Nino and its Impacton Food Crop Production at a Regional Levelin Asia and the PacificShigeki Yokoyama1AbstractThis paper aims to clarify the effects of ENSO (El....

87　ARTICLESHistorical Occurrence of El Nino and its Impacton Food Crop Production at a Regional Levelin Asia and the PacificShigeki Yokoyama1AbstractThis paper aims to clarify the effects of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) on food cropproduction in tropical Asia and the Pacific. Firstly, we review the historical occurrence ofEl Nino events in the last forty years, and measure their impact on cereal production in theregion. Secondly, we clarify the characteristics of production loss in El Nino years comparedto that of non-El Nino years. Thirdly, we examine production variability and its ENSOsensitivity by major food crops in the region. We conclude with policy implications focusingon the roles of upland crops.1. Mechanism of El NinoThe term El Nino (the Christ Child in Spanish) was originally referred to thephenomenon of an annual weak warm sea current from south to north along Peru andEcuador about Christmas time by the local fishermen in the late 19th century or sometime before (Fagan, 1999; Glantz, 1996). It was known that this abnormal warmingdisrupted local fish and bird populations. Scientists later showed that the coastalwarming is associated with the Pacific basin-wide phenomenon linking atmosphericand oceanic components. As research continues to progress, the term El Nino nowcovers a wider range of phenomena: (i) The occasional return of unusually warmwater in the normally cold water (upwelling) region along the Peruvian coast (ENSOwarm event), (ii) A Pacific basin-wide increase in both sea surface temperature in thecentral and/or eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and in sea level atmospheric pressure inKochi University Review of Social Science No. 97 March 20101 Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan)